Friday, April 10, 2026

market intelligence

12 data sources · automated briefing

morning edition updated 22:07 BKK vol. I · no. 100
BTC
$71,736
▲ +0.87%
ETH
$2,189
▼ -0.04%
SOL
$83.30
▲ +0.86%
F&G
14
Extreme Fear
VIX
19.5
S&P
680
GOLD
$438

Markets Grip Extreme Fear as Bitcoin Holds $71,736

VIX at 19.5 · real rates restrictive at 1.30% · Fear & Greed at 14

Market's frozen in amber. BTC holds $71.7K on thin conviction while the world watches Iran ceasefire odds like a roulette wheel. Extreme Fear at 14 says retail has checked out, but credit spreads at 2.94% say institutions haven't flinched — that dissonance is the story. Capital is flowing into staking and restaking infrastructure despite the fear. ETH ecosystem is building yield positions like they expect the dust to settle. The number that matters isn't BTC's price — it's the 35-point gap between Fear & Greed (14, extreme fear) and HY spreads (2.94%, borderline complacency). Retail is terrified. Credit markets are relaxed. One of them is wrong.

technical analysis

Signal Dashboard

Asset Signal Conv. RSI 1h RSI 4h 24h
BTC neutral
58
53 65 ▲ +1.00%
ETH neutral
58
47 55 ▼ -0.04%
SOL neutral
50
50 55 ▲ +0.84%
ATOM neutral
58
54 62 ▲ +1.24%
INIT neutral
45
43 45 ▼ -2.32%

derivatives

Futures Positioning

BTC OI: $6.7B · flat
Retail
48%
52%
Whales
51%
49%
ETH OI: $4.9B · flat
Retail
62%
38%
Whales
53%
47%
⚠ notable divergence (retail: 1.60, whales: 1.14)

↗ shifting long — crowd getting greedy

SOL OI: $714.3M · flat
Retail
70%
30%
Whales
63%
37%
⚠ notable divergence (retail: 2.29, whales: 1.69)

↗ shifting long — crowd getting greedy

federal reserve

Macro Intelligence

Post-Inversion Watch

Real Rate1.30% (restrictive)
Yield CurvePost-Inversion Normalization
HY Spread2.94%
Unemployment4.3%

Dalio framework · Real rate = Fed Funds (3.64%) − Breakeven (2.34%)

Indicator Value Change
Fed Funds Rate 3.64% +0.00
10Y-2Y Spread 0.51% +0.01
Breakeven Inflation 2.34% +0.01
Unemployment 4.3% -0.10
Trade-Weighted USD 120.6565 +0.15
HY Spread 2.94% -0.18

Market Sentiment

14
Extreme Fear

0 = extreme fear · 100 = extreme greed

Market Overview

Total Market Cap $2.5T
BTC Dominance 57.1%
ETH Dominance 10.5%
10Y Yield 4.29%
Gold $438

Key Signals

⚠ ETH: notable divergence (retail: 1.60, whales: 1.14)
⚠ SOL: notable divergence (retail: 2.29, whales: 1.69)
↗ ETH retail shifting long — crowd getting greedy
↗ SOL retail shifting long — crowd getting greedy

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Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?

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Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

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on-chain flow

DEX Activity & Trending Pools

trending pools

GITLAWB / WETH
base · $1.0M ▲ +99.67%
GENZ / SOL
solana · $5.7M ▲ +3487.74%
ARIA / USDT 0.01%
bsc · $69.6M ▼ -52.97%
Iroha / SOL
solana · $1.5M ▼ -34.76%
NEU / SOL
solana · $1.2M ▼ -53.17%

defi tvl — top 8

Binance CEX $150.4B +0.32%
Aave V3 $24.9B +1.05%
Lido $20.8B +0.3%
Bitfinex $18.0B +0.6%
SSV Network $16.3B -0.13%
Bybit $15.3B +0.34%
OKX $13.3B -0.25%
Robinhood $13.1B +0.82%
Friday, April 10, 2026 · data from 12 sources · not financial advice