Monday, April 13, 2026
market intelligence
12 data sources · automated briefing
Bitcoin Tumbles to $70,634
VIX at 19.2 · real rates restrictive at 1.28% · Fear & Greed at 16
Market locked in Extreme Fear at 16. Retail has checked out. Real rate at +1.28% (restrictive). Yield curve post-inversion normalization. HY spread at 2.9% — credit markets pricing complacency. Positioning divergence: ETH: retail 64% long vs whales 51% long. SOL: retail 75% long vs whales 61% long.
technical analysis
Signal Dashboard
| Asset | Signal | Conv. | RSI 1h | RSI 4h | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | neutral | | 31 | 41 | ▼ -3.31% |
| ETH | neutral | | 38 | 46 | ▼ -4.24% |
| SOL | neutral | | 36 | 41 | ▼ -4.06% |
| ATOM | neutral | | 36 | 37 | ▼ -2.98% |
| INIT | neutral | | 26 | 33 | ▼ -7.16% |
derivatives
Futures Positioning
federal reserve
Macro Intelligence
Post-Inversion Watch
Dalio framework · Real rate = Fed Funds (3.64%) − Breakeven (2.36%)
| Indicator | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.64% | +0.00 |
| 10Y-2Y Spread | 0.5% | -0.01 |
| Breakeven Inflation | 2.36% | +0.02 |
| Unemployment | 4.3% | -0.10 |
| Trade-Weighted USD | 120.6565 | +0.15 |
| HY Spread | 2.9% | -0.04 |
Market Sentiment
0 = extreme fear · 100 = extreme greed
Market Overview
Key Signals
Prediction Markets
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?
5% Yes · Vol: $1.2M
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
33% Yes · Vol: $989,487
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
10% Yes · Vol: $833,301
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?
6% Yes · Vol: $817,426
on-chain flow