Wednesday, April 22, 2026
market intelligence
12 data sources · automated briefing
Bitcoin Holds Steady at $76,355
VIX at 19.5 · real rates restrictive at 1.26% · Fear & Greed at 33
Sentiment neutral at 33. Tape waiting for a catalyst. Real rate at +1.26% (restrictive). Yield curve post-inversion normalization. HY spread at 2.87% — credit markets pricing complacency. Positioning divergence: ETH: retail 66% long vs whales 53% long. SOL: retail 70% long vs whales 60% long. Capital rotating into OKX.
technical analysis
Signal Dashboard
| Asset | Signal | Conv. | RSI 1h | RSI 4h | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | bullish | | 58 | 56 | ▲ +0.66% |
| ETH | bullish | | 57 | 51 | ▲ +0.56% |
| SOL | bullish | | 55 | 51 | ▲ +0.80% |
| ATOM | bullish | | 64 | 61 | ▲ +2.44% |
| INIT | neutral | | 41 | 46 | ▼ -5.86% |
derivatives
Futures Positioning
federal reserve
Macro Intelligence
Post-Inversion Watch
Dalio framework · Real rate = Fed Funds (3.64%) − Breakeven (2.38%)
| Indicator | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.64% | +0.00 |
| 10Y-2Y Spread | 0.52% | -0.02 |
| Breakeven Inflation | 2.38% | +0.03 |
| Unemployment | 4.3% | -0.10 |
| Trade-Weighted USD | 118.0795 | -0.28 |
| HY Spread | 2.87% | +0.04 |
Market Sentiment
0 = extreme fear · 100 = extreme greed
Market Overview
Key Signals
Prediction Markets
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?
18% Yes · Vol: $3.1M
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
18% Yes · Vol: $2.3M
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
28% Yes · Vol: $1.8M
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
5% Yes · Vol: $1.2M
on-chain flow