Thursday, April 23, 2026
market intelligence
12 data sources · automated briefing
Bitcoin Edges Higher to $78,311
VIX at 18.9 · real rates restrictive at 1.26% · Fear & Greed at 32
Sentiment neutral at 32. Tape waiting for a catalyst. Real rate at +1.26% (restrictive). Yield curve post-inversion normalization. HY spread at 2.85% — credit markets pricing complacency. Positioning divergence: BTC: retail 34% long vs whales 46% long. ETH: retail 54% long vs whales 58% long. Capital rotating into OKX, Lido, Bitfinex.
technical analysis
Signal Dashboard
| Asset | Signal | Conv. | RSI 1h | RSI 4h | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | neutral | | 54 | 61 | ▲ +2.54% |
| ETH | neutral | | 50 | 58 | ▲ +2.24% |
| SOL | neutral | | 45 | 53 | ▲ +1.07% |
| ATOM | neutral | | 50 | 60 | ▲ +1.30% |
| INIT | neutral | | 44 | 45 | ▼ -1.45% |
derivatives
Futures Positioning
↗ shifting long — crowd getting greedy
federal reserve
Macro Intelligence
Post-Inversion Watch
Dalio framework · Real rate = Fed Funds (3.64%) − Breakeven (2.38%)
| Indicator | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.64% | +0.00 |
| 10Y-2Y Spread | 0.51% | -0.01 |
| Breakeven Inflation | 2.38% | +0.00 |
| Unemployment | 4.3% | -0.10 |
| Trade-Weighted USD | 118.0795 | -0.28 |
| HY Spread | 2.85% | -0.02 |
Market Sentiment
0 = extreme fear · 100 = extreme greed
Market Overview
Key Signals
Prediction Markets
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Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
22% Yes · Vol: $1.3M
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?
94% Yes · Vol: $895,552
on-chain flow