Saturday, April 25, 2026
market intelligence
12 data sources · automated briefing
Bitcoin Dips to $77,436
VIX at 18.7 · real rates restrictive at 1.22% · Fear & Greed at 39
Sentiment neutral at 39. Tape waiting for a catalyst. Real rate at +1.22% (restrictive). Yield curve post-inversion normalization. HY spread at 2.86% — credit markets pricing complacency. Positioning divergence: ETH: retail 67% long vs whales 55% long. SOL: retail 69% long vs whales 65% long.
technical analysis
Signal Dashboard
| Asset | Signal | Conv. | RSI 1h | RSI 4h | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | neutral | | 41 | 51 | ▼ -1.06% |
| ETH | neutral | | 46 | 45 | ▼ -0.66% |
| SOL | neutral | | 51 | 50 | ▲ +0.10% |
| ATOM | bearish | | 65 | 74 | ▲ +3.92% |
| INIT | neutral | | 68 | 60 | ▲ +8.92% |
derivatives
Futures Positioning
federal reserve
Macro Intelligence
Post-Inversion Watch
Dalio framework · Real rate = Fed Funds (3.64%) − Breakeven (2.42%)
| Indicator | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.64% | +0.00 |
| 10Y-2Y Spread | 0.53% | +0.02 |
| Breakeven Inflation | 2.42% | +0.00 |
| Unemployment | 4.3% | -0.10 |
| Trade-Weighted USD | 118.0795 | -0.28 |
| HY Spread | 2.86% | +0.02 |
Market Sentiment
0 = extreme fear · 100 = extreme greed
Market Overview
Key Signals
Prediction Markets
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
10% Yes · Vol: $3.5M
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
35% Yes · Vol: $1.2M
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?
60% Yes · Vol: $1.1M
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?
28% Yes · Vol: $729,548
on-chain flow