Saturday, May 02, 2026
market intelligence
12 data sources · automated briefing
Bitcoin Edges Higher to $78,132
VIX at 17.0 · real rates restrictive at 1.16% · Fear & Greed at 26
Sentiment neutral at 26. Tape waiting for a catalyst. Real rate at +1.16% (restrictive). Yield curve post-inversion normalization. HY spread at 2.83% — credit markets pricing complacency. Positioning divergence: BTC: retail 37% long vs whales 43% long. ETH: retail 61% long vs whales 54% long. SOL: retail 72% long vs whales 66% long. Capital rotating into OKX, Bitfinex, SSV Network.
technical analysis
Signal Dashboard
| Asset | Signal | Conv. | RSI 1h | RSI 4h | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | neutral | | 59 | 61 | ▲ +2.37% |
| ETH | neutral | | 53 | 51 | ▲ +1.60% |
| SOL | neutral | | 48 | 47 | ▲ +0.76% |
| ATOM | neutral | | 49 | 42 | ▲ +0.42% |
| INIT | neutral | | 44 | 48 | ▼ -0.44% |
derivatives
Futures Positioning
↗ shifting long — crowd getting greedy
federal reserve
Macro Intelligence
Post-Inversion Watch
Dalio framework · Real rate = Fed Funds (3.64%) − Breakeven (2.48%)
| Indicator | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.64% | +0.00 |
| 10Y-2Y Spread | 0.51% | -0.01 |
| Breakeven Inflation | 2.48% | +0.02 |
| Unemployment | 4.3% | -0.10 |
| Trade-Weighted USD | 118.7294 | +0.01 |
| HY Spread | 2.83% | +0.01 |
Market Sentiment
0 = extreme fear · 100 = extreme greed
Market Overview
Key Signals
Prediction Markets
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
22% Yes · Vol: $880,526
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?
8% Yes · Vol: $678,951
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
7% Yes · Vol: $503,821
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
30% Yes · Vol: $407,494
on-chain flow