Saturday, May 09, 2026
market intelligence
12 data sources · automated briefing
Bitcoin Holds Steady at $80,170
VIX at 17.2 · real rates restrictive at 1.18% · Fear & Greed at 38
Sentiment neutral at 38. Tape waiting for a catalyst. Real rate at +1.18% (restrictive). Yield curve —. HY spread at 2.79% — credit markets pricing complacency. Positioning divergence: ETH: retail 71% long vs whales 49% long. SOL: retail 60% long vs whales 65% long. Capital rotating into SSV Network, Bybit, Aave V3.
technical analysis
Signal Dashboard
| Asset | Signal | Conv. | RSI 1h | RSI 4h | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | neutral | | 52 | 49 | ▲ +0.21% |
| ETH | neutral | | 53 | 45 | ▲ +0.63% |
| SOL | neutral | | 70 | 68 | ▲ +3.90% |
| ATOM | neutral | | 69 | 60 | ▲ +3.39% |
| INIT | neutral | | 48 | 57 | ▼ -7.36% |
derivatives
Futures Positioning
↗ shifting short — crowd getting fearful
↗ shifting short — crowd getting fearful
federal reserve
Macro Intelligence
—
Dalio framework · Real rate = Fed Funds (3.63%) − Breakeven (2.45%)
| Indicator | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.63% | -0.01 |
| Breakeven Inflation | 2.45% | +0.00 |
| Unemployment | 4.3% | +0.00 |
| Trade-Weighted USD | 118.3926 | -0.28 |
| HY Spread | 2.79% | +0.04 |
Market Sentiment
0 = extreme fear · 100 = extreme greed
Market Overview
Key Signals
Prediction Markets
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
15% Yes · Vol: $1.1M
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?
18% Yes · Vol: $917,497
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
35% Yes · Vol: $851,194
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
7% Yes · Vol: $335,460
on-chain flow