Monday, May 11, 2026
market intelligence
12 data sources · automated briefing
Bitcoin Edges Higher to $82,331
VIX at 17.2 · real rates restrictive at 1.18% · Fear & Greed at 47
Sentiment neutral at 47. Tape waiting for a catalyst. Real rate at +1.18% (restrictive). Yield curve post-inversion normalization. HY spread at 2.79% — credit markets pricing complacency. Positioning divergence: ETH: retail 65% long vs whales 56% long. SOL: retail 58% long vs whales 64% long. Capital rotating into Lido, SSV Network, Aave V3.
technical analysis
Signal Dashboard
| Asset | Signal | Conv. | RSI 1h | RSI 4h | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | neutral | | 71 | 70 | ▲ +2.03% |
| ETH | bullish | | 66 | 66 | ▲ +2.10% |
| SOL | neutral | | 66 | 78 | ▲ +3.73% |
| ATOM | neutral | | 63 | 65 | ▲ +4.34% |
| INIT | neutral | | 50 | 55 | ▼ -3.48% |
derivatives
Futures Positioning
federal reserve
Macro Intelligence
Post-Inversion Watch
Dalio framework · Real rate = Fed Funds (3.63%) − Breakeven (2.45%)
| Indicator | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.63% | -0.01 |
| 10Y-2Y Spread | 0.48% | -0.01 |
| Breakeven Inflation | 2.45% | +0.00 |
| Unemployment | 4.3% | +0.00 |
| Trade-Weighted USD | 118.3926 | -0.28 |
| HY Spread | 2.79% | +0.04 |
Market Sentiment
0 = extreme fear · 100 = extreme greed
Market Overview
Key Signals
Prediction Markets
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
19% Yes · Vol: $1.4M
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
38% Yes · Vol: $796,321
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
27% Yes · Vol: $560,502
Will Trump visit China by May 15?
91% Yes · Vol: $476,339
on-chain flow