Tuesday, May 12, 2026
market intelligence
12 data sources · automated briefing
Bitcoin Holds Steady at $81,739
VIX at 18.4 · real rates restrictive at 1.16% · Fear & Greed at 48
Sentiment neutral at 48. Tape waiting for a catalyst. Real rate at +1.16% (restrictive). Yield curve post-inversion normalization. HY spread at 2.81% — credit markets pricing complacency. Positioning divergence: BTC: retail 38% long vs whales 44% long. ETH: retail 68% long vs whales 55% long. SOL: retail 55% long vs whales 65% long. Capital rotating into Bitfinex, Robinhood.
technical analysis
Signal Dashboard
| Asset | Signal | Conv. | RSI 1h | RSI 4h | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | neutral | | 59 | 59 | ▼ -0.55% |
| ETH | neutral | | 53 | 53 | ▼ -1.28% |
| SOL | neutral | | 59 | 69 | ▲ +0.85% |
| ATOM | bullish | | 62 | 63 | ▲ +1.59% |
| INIT | neutral | | 51 | 50 | ▼ -2.85% |
derivatives
Futures Positioning
federal reserve
Macro Intelligence
Post-Inversion Watch
Dalio framework · Real rate = Fed Funds (3.63%) − Breakeven (2.47%)
| Indicator | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.63% | +0.00 |
| 10Y-2Y Spread | 0.47% | -0.01 |
| Breakeven Inflation | 2.47% | +0.02 |
| Unemployment | 4.3% | +0.00 |
| Trade-Weighted USD | 118.0392 | +0.03 |
| HY Spread | 2.81% | +0.02 |
Market Sentiment
0 = extreme fear · 100 = extreme greed
Market Overview
Key Signals
Prediction Markets
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
17% Yes · Vol: $1.0M
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?
31% Yes · Vol: $820,409
US strike on Colombia by December 31?
18% Yes · Vol: $530,492
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
27% Yes · Vol: $456,405
on-chain flow