Thursday, May 14, 2026
market intelligence
12 data sources · automated briefing
Bitcoin Dips to $79,281
real rates restrictive at 1.16% · Fear & Greed at 42
Sentiment neutral at 42. Tape waiting for a catalyst. Real rate at +1.16% (restrictive). Yield curve post-inversion normalization. HY spread at 2.82% — credit markets pricing complacency. Positioning divergence: ETH: retail 76% long vs whales 56% long. SOL: retail 69% long vs whales 60% long.
technical analysis
Signal Dashboard
| Asset | Signal | Conv. | RSI 1h | RSI 4h | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | neutral | | 36 | 40 | ▼ -1.52% |
| ETH | neutral | | 41 | 39 | ▼ -0.77% |
| SOL | neutral | | 31 | 40 | ▼ -3.36% |
| ATOM | neutral | | 42 | 51 | ▼ -2.95% |
| INIT | neutral | | 30 | 39 | ▼ -7.39% |
derivatives
Futures Positioning
federal reserve
Macro Intelligence
Post-Inversion Watch
Dalio framework · Real rate = Fed Funds (3.63%) − Breakeven (2.47%)
| Indicator | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.63% | +0.00 |
| 10Y-2Y Spread | 0.48% | +0.02 |
| Breakeven Inflation | 2.47% | +0.00 |
| Unemployment | 4.3% | +0.00 |
| Trade-Weighted USD | 118.0392 | +0.03 |
| HY Spread | 2.82% | +0.03 |
Market Sentiment
0 = extreme fear · 100 = extreme greed
Market Overview
Key Signals
Prediction Markets
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?
6% Yes · Vol: $1.3M
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
13% Yes · Vol: $719,767
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
41% Yes · Vol: $348,821
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
33% Yes · Vol: $345,947
on-chain flow