Tuesday, May 19, 2026
market intelligence
12 data sources · automated briefing
Bitcoin Holds Steady at $76,967
real rates restrictive at 1.15% · Fear & Greed at 28
Sentiment neutral at 28. Tape waiting for a catalyst. Real rate at +1.15% (restrictive). Yield curve post-inversion normalization. HY spread at 2.8% — credit markets pricing complacency. Positioning divergence: BTC: retail 59% long vs whales 52% long. ETH: retail 74% long vs whales 60% long. SOL: retail 75% long vs whales 63% long.
technical analysis
Signal Dashboard
| Asset | Signal | Conv. | RSI 1h | RSI 4h | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | neutral | | 49 | 38 | ▼ -0.56% |
| ETH | neutral | | 50 | 34 | ▼ -0.05% |
| SOL | neutral | | 53 | 37 | ▲ +0.19% |
| ATOM | bullish | | 59 | 58 | ▲ +1.87% |
| INIT | neutral | | 54 | 39 | ▲ +0.36% |
derivatives
Futures Positioning
↗ shifting short — crowd getting fearful
↗ shifting short — crowd getting fearful
↗ shifting short — crowd getting fearful
federal reserve
Macro Intelligence
Post-Inversion Watch
Dalio framework · Real rate = Fed Funds (3.63%) − Breakeven (2.48%)
| Indicator | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.63% | +0.00 |
| 10Y-2Y Spread | 0.54% | +0.04 |
| Breakeven Inflation | 2.48% | -0.01 |
| Unemployment | 4.3% | +0.00 |
| Trade-Weighted USD | 119.2825 | +0.61 |
| HY Spread | 2.8% | +0.04 |
Market Sentiment
0 = extreme fear · 100 = extreme greed
Market Overview
Key Signals
Prediction Markets
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
15% Yes · Vol: $1.8M
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?
6% Yes · Vol: $631,077
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
35% Yes · Vol: $554,527
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
28% Yes · Vol: $508,425
on-chain flow