Wednesday, May 20, 2026
market intelligence
12 data sources · automated briefing
Bitcoin Holds Steady at $76,807
real rates restrictive at 1.14% · Fear & Greed at 25
Market locked in Extreme Fear at 25. Retail has checked out. Real rate at +1.14% (restrictive). Yield curve post-inversion normalization. HY spread at 2.83% — credit markets pricing complacency. Positioning divergence: BTC: retail 59% long vs whales 52% long. ETH: retail 74% long vs whales 59% long. SOL: retail 76% long vs whales 64% long.
technical analysis
Signal Dashboard
| Asset | Signal | Conv. | RSI 1h | RSI 4h | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | neutral | | 50 | 41 | ▼ -0.13% |
| ETH | neutral | | 47 | 34 | ▼ -0.72% |
| SOL | neutral | | 46 | 34 | ▼ -1.15% |
| ATOM | neutral | | 48 | 51 | ▼ -1.54% |
| INIT | neutral | | 44 | 37 | ▼ -1.07% |
derivatives
Futures Positioning
federal reserve
Macro Intelligence
Post-Inversion Watch
Dalio framework · Real rate = Fed Funds (3.63%) − Breakeven (2.49%)
| Indicator | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.63% | +0.00 |
| 10Y-2Y Spread | 0.54% | +0.00 |
| Breakeven Inflation | 2.49% | +0.01 |
| Unemployment | 4.3% | +0.00 |
| Trade-Weighted USD | 119.2825 | +0.61 |
| HY Spread | 2.83% | +0.03 |
Market Sentiment
0 = extreme fear · 100 = extreme greed
Market Overview
Key Signals
Prediction Markets
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
9% Yes · Vol: $1.1M
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?
15% Yes · Vol: $1.0M
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
32% Yes · Vol: $602,383
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
7% Yes · Vol: $335,460
on-chain flow