Tuesday, May 26, 2026
market intelligence
12 data sources · automated briefing
Bitcoin Holds Steady at $77,244
real rates restrictive at 1.22% · Fear & Greed at 30
Sentiment neutral at 30. Tape waiting for a catalyst. Real rate at +1.22% (restrictive). Yield curve post-inversion normalization. HY spread at 2.78% — credit markets pricing complacency. Positioning divergence: ETH: retail 69% long vs whales 60% long. SOL: retail 74% long vs whales 67% long.
technical analysis
Signal Dashboard
| Asset | Signal | Conv. | RSI 1h | RSI 4h | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | neutral | | 51 | 54 | ▲ +0.32% |
| ETH | neutral | | 49 | 50 | ▲ +0.54% |
| SOL | neutral | | 39 | 46 | ▼ -0.36% |
| ATOM | neutral | | 53 | 57 | ▲ +3.89% |
| INIT | bearish | | 43 | 44 | ▲ +0.86% |
derivatives
Futures Positioning
↗ shifting long — crowd getting greedy
↗ shifting long — crowd getting greedy
federal reserve
Macro Intelligence
Post-Inversion Watch
Dalio framework · Real rate = Fed Funds (3.62%) − Breakeven (2.4%)
| Indicator | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.62% | +0.00 |
| 10Y-2Y Spread | 0.43% | -0.06 |
| Breakeven Inflation | 2.4% | +0.01 |
| Unemployment | 4.3% | +0.00 |
| Trade-Weighted USD | 119.2825 | +0.61 |
| HY Spread | 2.78% | -0.02 |
Market Sentiment
0 = extreme fear · 100 = extreme greed
Market Overview
Key Signals
Prediction Markets
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?
9% Yes · Vol: $5.5M
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
33% Yes · Vol: $3.0M
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?
18% Yes · Vol: $562,686
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?
46% Yes · Vol: $514,933
on-chain flow