Thursday, June 25, 2026
market intelligence
12 data sources · automated briefing
Markets Grip Extreme Fear as Bitcoin Holds $60,901
real rates restrictive at 1.45% · Fear & Greed at 17
Market locked in Extreme Fear at 17. Retail has checked out. Real rate at +1.45% (restrictive). Yield curve post-inversion normalization. HY spread at 2.71% — credit markets pricing complacency. Positioning divergence: BTC: retail 72% long vs whales 53% long. ETH: retail 72% long vs whales 58% long. SOL: retail 76% long vs whales 59% long.
technical analysis
Signal Dashboard
| Asset | Signal | Conv. | RSI 1h | RSI 4h | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | neutral | | 44 | 36 | ▼ -2.75% |
| ETH | neutral | | 44 | 36 | ▼ -2.80% |
| SOL | neutral | | 47 | 40 | ▼ -2.44% |
| ATOM | bullish | | 41 | 27 | ▼ -4.01% |
| INIT | neutral | | 32 | 34 | ▼ -9.63% |
derivatives
Futures Positioning
↗ shifting short — crowd getting fearful
federal reserve
Macro Intelligence
Post-Inversion Watch
Dalio framework · Real rate = Fed Funds (3.63%) − Breakeven (2.18%)
| Indicator | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.63% | +0.00 |
| 10Y-2Y Spread | 0.3% | -0.04 |
| Breakeven Inflation | 2.18% | -0.03 |
| Unemployment | 4.3% | +0.00 |
| Trade-Weighted USD | 120.3958 | +1.01 |
| HY Spread | 2.71% | +0.06 |
Market Sentiment
0 = extreme fear · 100 = extreme greed
Market Overview
Key Signals
Prediction Markets
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Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
5% Yes · Vol: $316,423
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31% Yes · Vol: $304,255
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
23% Yes · Vol: $292,168
on-chain flow